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[_] How to predict audience growth

Rob Jonson rob at
Mon Feb 11 14:47:05 GMT 2013

> I hope this question has demonstrated that I simply do not understand how a
> typical audience builds and what that looks like statistically. I also
> don't know what industry factors to research to gauge size of market. Can
> anyone point me to any resources/tutorials/articles that might help me
> understand?
> Kind regards, Martin

It's ok - nobody really understands that! I don't think there is such a
thing as a typical audience.

People build business plans and predict the future, but by and large it is

Having said that, you can put some upper limits on how many people might
use the site:

#gigs in country * #of people at average gig = #potential users

then take random guesses to adjust for

-how much do people care?
-how many sites compete with you? (most gigs will have their own site. I
don't know if there are other directories)

then ask the important question; How much do _you_ care? This doesn't look
like something that will ever earn you megabucks, so the real question is
whether you care enough to devote your time.




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