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[_] How to predict audience growth

Shane McEwan shane at
Mon Feb 11 13:52:42 GMT 2013

On 11/02/13 13:34, Martin Joiner wrote:
> My site was receiving 100 unique visitors a day this
> time last year. Today it's receiving 200. That can be described as an
> increase of 100 people or 100%. My question is: Assuming I continue doing
> the same amount of development/promotion, *should I expect to be receiving
> 300 hits per day this time next year (ie. another 100 people) or 400 unique
> visits (ie. another 100% rise)?*

It probably has a lot to do with how people are finding your site. If 
it's word of mouth then you're likely to see an exponential growth (100 
-> 200 -> 400) as more people tell their friends about it.

If you rely on marketing then you'll probably see more of a linear 
growth if you stick to the same marketing over the year.

You shouldn't be trying to calculate a trend based on two data points, 
though. Plot unique visitors per day for each day over the last year. 
And then see if the points are curving upwards or are a straight line. 
Even three points would help. 6 months ago were you at 125 per day or 150?

Of course, today is going to be an anomaly, now, as everyone on 
Underscore hits your site. :-)