[_] How to predict audience growth
shane at mcewan.id.au
Mon Feb 11 13:52:42 GMT 2013
On 11/02/13 13:34, Martin Joiner wrote: > My site openmicfinder.co.uk was receiving 100 unique visitors a day this > time last year. Today it's receiving 200. That can be described as an > increase of 100 people or 100%. My question is: Assuming I continue doing > the same amount of development/promotion, *should I expect to be receiving > 300 hits per day this time next year (ie. another 100 people) or 400 unique > visits (ie. another 100% rise)?* It probably has a lot to do with how people are finding your site. If it's word of mouth then you're likely to see an exponential growth (100 -> 200 -> 400) as more people tell their friends about it. If you rely on marketing then you'll probably see more of a linear growth if you stick to the same marketing over the year. You shouldn't be trying to calculate a trend based on two data points, though. Plot unique visitors per day for each day over the last year. And then see if the points are curving upwards or are a straight line. Even three points would help. 6 months ago were you at 125 per day or 150? Of course, today is going to be an anomaly, now, as everyone on Underscore hits your site. :-) Shane.